Yarr! Pirates attack and seize an oil tanker some 450 miles off East Africa. Despite the obvious and salutary effects
on global warming, the steady growth in these pirate attacks has some wondering where it will all end. Some are already figuring these guys must have bigger operations in mind, like hijacking a gas tanker and blowing it up (or just selling it to somebody who will). Something like that would indeed
be pretty bad:
"If it was an LNG tanker seized, we're looking at something potentially catastrophic," said Candyce Kelshall, a specialist in maritime energy security at Blue Water Defence, a Trinidad-based firm that provides training to governments and companies combating piracy. "An LNG tanker going up is like 50 Hiroshimas."
We certainly don't want that happening. Unmentioned, of course, are a few little details. First, said pirates would have to seize this LNG tanker without anyone noticing. Then, they'd have to sail it from the coast of East Africa (presumably, anyway...after all, these guys don't exactly operate off Long Island Sound) to somewhere much more interesting. Without anyone noticing. Then they'd have to park it within a 50-Hiroshima blast radius of, say, a big city. New York City certainly suits with all the shipping traffic. LA would work too. But again: motor this ship up to and then park this ship in a major harbor
without anyone noticing. Then they'd have to blow it up such that it actually exploded catastrophically. This, in and of itself, is actually a
non-trivial step. However, conditioned by Hollywood as we are to expecting a colossal, city block flattening explosion after even the most minor fender-bender, this is perhaps the hardest point to make with the public. After all, it's a well established fact that 99.999% of all elevators suffer catastrophic cable failure within 30 seconds of any unscheduled stop. This, of course, is also followed instantly by catastrophic emergency brake failure...it's plainly a wonder that anyone survives an elevator ride.
Can we ever get past all the "We're all going to die! This is the end of the Republic!" nonsense? The second most likely outcome of such a LNG tanker seizure is a 50-Hiroshima detonation way the hell and gone out to sea, being the result of a sailor pressing a button mid-coffee-sip on a US Navy missile cruiser located somewhere well over the horizon. The first most likely is, of course, the surrender of said pirates once their situation becomes clear to them. But either way works out pretty well.
Real security means focusing on the relatively easy to secure, already here type targets that can be turned into seemingly ubiquitous engines of fear, uncertainty, and doubt subsequent to the initial attack. As a rule, we don't need to be wasting our efforts on the theoretical plots that require professional laboratory conditions aboard an airplane, or that rest upon ridiculously complex, multi-step, slowly evolving plots that, though summarily rejected by the audience in
Die Hard 14: This Time It's Really Personal, are at least 1% feasible...and thus MUST be defended against without consideration of expense or probability of said event while the 98% feasible targets languish because, gosh, that would require some minor outlay of money on the part of Cheney's hunting buddies. Naturally, these "easy" targets are precisely the ones the Bush administration has repeatedly stressed that
it could give a fuck about. Who could have expected that?
